Nigeria's inflation eases to 14.63% in September, its lowest reading this year
Core inflation falls to 12.95% while food inflation holds near 20%
Key findings
- Headline inflation fell to 14.63% in September from 15.39% in August, a drop of 0.76 percentage points.
- Core inflation eased to 12.95% from 13.29%.
- Food inflation held at 19.59%, while food prices fell 1.55% from August.
- The all-items index rose just 0.06% month on month, against 0.71% in August.
- The policy rate of 23% now stands 8.37 percentage points above headline inflation.
Consumer prices rose 14.63% in the year to September 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics reported on 15 October, down from 15.39% in August. The fall of 0.76 percentage points is the largest monthly change in the headline rate this year and takes it to its lowest reading of 2026, below the 15.15% recorded in December 2025.
Prices barely moved within the month. The all-items index rose 0.06% from August, against 0.71% a month earlier. Food prices fell 1.55% month on month, the first monthly decline since January, although the annual food rate held at 19.59%, against 19.57% in August and down from 20.31% in July.
Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, eased to 12.95% from 13.29%, a fall of 0.34 percentage points, its lowest level this year. The average rate over the past twelve months stands at 15.80%.
- Headline inflation
- 14.63%
- Food inflation
- 19.59%
- Core inflation
- 12.95%
Restated rates on the 2024 base year.
Why it matters
This is the first inflation reading since the Monetary Policy Committee cut the policy rate to 23% from 26.5% on 22 September. With headline inflation at 14.63%, the policy rate now sits 8.37 percentage points above it, so real rates remain firmly positive even after the cut. A cooler core rate gives the committee room to argue that underlying pressure is easing, but food inflation near 20% keeps the cost of living high for most households, who spend a large share of income on food.
What to watch
- Whether the monthly fall in food prices in September carries into October as harvests arrive, which would pull the annual food rate down.
- Whether core inflation keeps easing now that the policy rate has been cut.
- The next Monetary Policy Committee meeting, and how it weighs a falling headline rate against food inflation.
Methodology
Rates are year-on-year and month-on-month changes in the national consumer price index as published by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 2024 base year, using restated figures where NBS has revised them. September 2026 is compared with August 2026. The gap between the policy rate and inflation is the Monetary Policy Rate set on 22 September 2026 minus September headline inflation.